Fact: The World Will Be 40% Vegan In 5-7 Years

Vegan Population Projections - Closely Following Moore's Law, Doubling Time 2 Years
Meme provided by John Bruce Anderson

What I like about this graph is, you feel stupid trying to argue against it. Because the trend has been to double every 2 years for quite some time now already.. the vegan who doubts we will be at 10% of the global human population in 2 years time isn't helping, and needs to push harder, go further. Rather than trying to prove the graph wrong, strive to proof the graph correct. That's what vegans do. - John Bruce Anderson

I know a lot of people don’t understand exponential growth, so lemme help “sell” this chart a bit.

What’s really helpful to realize is that **It actually DOESN’T MATTER if it’s a little bit off!**

Let’s say — to be pessimistic — that the actual number of vegans is ONLY HALF of what John’s research suggests.

Your “normal" intuition then tells you… well shit, if your stats are off by a factor of 2, then your graph is useless, because it’s going to take TWICE as long!! You’re a whole decade off!!

But when it comes to dynamic systems like this, your “normal" intuition is almost always wrong. Even experts in this stuff routinely find it mind-boggling.

Fact: Since the doubling time of this curve is 2 years… All that happens is that the graph gets shifted by 2 years. That means, since it currently says we’ll be 40% vegan by 2021 (just 6 years away!)...

— If there are really only HALF as many vegans now, then it just means we won’t hit 40% until 2023 (just 8 years away!)

— But if there happens to be TWICE as many vegans now, then it means we’re due to hit 40% in 2019 (just FOUR years away!)

So that’s interesting, right? It means that even if John’s numbers are based on flawed polls, and ALL of them overestimate vegans by a factor of two … we’ll still hit 40% in 8 years.

But REALISTICALLY how likely is it that every single poll is overestimating vegans by that much? You’d expect there to be an even mix — some would overestimate, and some would underestimate.

So REALISTICALLY it is safe to assume — no matter how little faith you have in John’s numbers — that we will *DEFINITELY* hit 40% vegan within 5 to 7 years. Repeat: Definitely. As in: "It is a scientific fact."

Now interestingly, John thinks his figures are on the conservative side. And personally, I’m hoping to see some super-acceleration effects kick in as we hit various “critical mass” type tipping points. But it’s funny the way math works. If John’s figures are off and we really have, say, 40% more now, then that simply shifts the graph closer by 1 year. And if we did happen to experience some sort of super-acceleration, it would likely happen somewhere around 30-40% vegan and would dramatically shorten the timetable by, oh… 3 months? 6 months?

So again… we’ll definitely without a doubt hit 40% vegan in 5-7 years.

Now some people have brought up the possibility of slowing down. In system dynamics, this is known as S-shaped growth. There is rapid exponential growth at the beginning, and then the growth rate begins to slow down as you both run out of convertible people. A few points about S-shaped growth in this appliation:

1) Near 100% conversion, yes, it’s likely that we’ll hit the final groups of stubborn people who refuse convert. But does it even matter?

2) Realistically, there is some percentage "majority" threshold of ethical vegans at which legislation will demand conversion to vegan standards. As the majority percentage continues to increase, the shrinking minority of meat eaters will gradually be forced out of options.

3) Vegan market share will gradually force meat out of business. As we hit 20% in just 3-4 years, meat will need to adapt to vegan standards or die. By then the trend (quickly rising from 10% to 20% to 40% in just 4 years) will be undeniable, and the stock market will go all-in towards vegan — not just food, but actively promoting the entire vegan lifestyle to support their investments.

All of this is basically INEVITABLE. While it may feel right now like we’re just a rinky-dink local operation with hopeful but completely improbable delusions of somehow becoming a global monopoly in 10 years -- That’s a completely inaccurate notion. Veganism is a global movement that is consistently growing according to scientific laws as sure as gravity. Ethically, nutritionally, economically, ecologically, spiritually, etc… we have the “better idea” and there is literally nothing that can stop us, at least not for long. We’re not just a tiny snowball gradually collecting snowflakes as it rolls down from the mountaintop. We’re an avalanche in progress. And gravity always wins. The surprise will be how soon it’s going to happen! It makes me wonder… which morning 5-7 years from now are we going to wake up and hear everyone talking about how veganism took over “literally overnight”?